Customer concentration risk: what it is and how to reduce it

01

What customer concentration means

Customer concentration describes how much of a business’s revenue comes from a small number of customers. A business with hundreds of customers, none of them large, has low concentration. A business where one customer accounts for a large part of turnover has high concentration, however loyal that customer has been.

Concentration is not a sign of a bad business. Strong companies can grow on the back of one or two major accounts, and serving demanding customers well is an achievement. The issue is dependency: what would happen to revenue, profit and cash if the largest customer left, cut its orders or renegotiated its prices.

It is also a question of time. A concentrated business can become diversified as it grows, and a diversified one can become concentrated after one large win. That is why the trend matters as much as any single year.

Loyalty in the past is not a contract for the future.

02

How to measure it in your own numbers

Start with a simple table built from your sales ledger for the last three full years. For each of your largest customers, record:

• revenue in each year
• their share of total revenue
• gross profit, where you can measure it, and their share of total gross profit
• the contract or agreement you hold them on, and when it ends or renews.

Then work out three shares for each year: your largest customer, your top five and your top ten, each as a percentage of total revenue. Look at the trend as well as the level. A share that is falling because the rest of the business is growing tells a different story from one that rises year after year.

Look at profit as well as revenue. A large customer on thin margins may matter less to profit than its revenue suggests, while a smaller one on strong margins may matter more.

Look through to the real risk, too. Several customers in the same corporate group, or several that all depend on the same end client, can be one exposure wearing several names. Group them before you calculate.

03

Why buyers, lenders and investors care

Anyone taking on the business, or lending to it, is looking at future cash flows, and concentration makes those cash flows less certain. The British Business Bank’s guide to selling your business lists reliance on a single customer among the reasons an exit may not be viable, and describes a wide and growing customer base, with good visibility on forward contracts, as evidence that can make selling a business easier. The practical reasons behind that view:

• Revenue at risk. Losing a large customer can remove a significant share of revenue and profit at once.
• Bargaining power. A dominant customer can press on price and terms, and may know it.
• Change of ownership. Some customers review their suppliers when a business changes hands, and some contracts contain terms that apply on a change of control.
• Cash flow. A large customer that pays slowly can put real strain on working capital.

Lenders look at the same question from another angle. Their concern is whether the cash flows that repay a loan are reliable, and a business that depends on a few customers is more exposed if one of them leaves or pays late.

You will find rules of thumb online about the ‘safe’ share for a largest customer and the discount buyers apply above it. We do not repeat them. They come from sale intermediaries rather than authoritative sources, and every business is different. What matters is how clearly you understand your own position, and how credibly you can show it is being managed.

04

It isn’t only customers: suppliers, channels and sectors

The same logic applies anywhere the business leans on a single point of failure:

• Suppliers. One supplier for a critical input, with no tested alternative.
• Channels. Most sales arriving through one platform, marketplace, distributor or referral partner.
• Sectors. Customers spread across many names but all in one industry, exposed to the same downturn or regulation.
• People. Key accounts held personally by one member of staff, often the founder.

Map these alongside customer concentration, because a buyer will look at all of them. The last one is covered in How to make your business less dependent on you.

05

Ways to widen your client base without neglecting key accounts

Diversifying does not mean pushing large customers away. It means growing the rest of the business faster, so that the largest accounts become a smaller share of a bigger whole. ICAEW’s guidance on growing your business draws a useful distinction: selling more to existing customers is a reliable way to grow, while expanding into new sectors and adding new products is riskier but potentially more lucrative. A good plan uses both.

Before you chase a new segment, test it. The British Business Bank’s scale-up checklist asks the questions that sit behind any diversification plan: is there a real need for what you offer, who will buy it and why, how does it compare with what competitors offer, and is there room to expand into new markets?

• Grow the middle. Mid-sized customers can be the quickest route to a broader base. What would it take for them to buy more from you?
• Find adjacent segments. Look for customers with the same need in a neighbouring sector or region, where your track record still counts.
• Build repeatable sales. A defined offer, a clear price and a sales process the team can run will win smaller accounts at a sensible cost.
• Use your references. Your largest customer is proof that you can deliver. With their permission, use that proof to win the next one.
• Protect service levels. Make sure growth elsewhere does not weaken delivery to the accounts that pay the bills today.

Set yourself a direction rather than a magic number. Decide what you want the customer picture to look like in three years, track the shares every quarter, and make sure winning new customers gets a fair share of the team’s time and attention.

06

Making the relationships you keep more secure

Alongside widening the base, reduce the risk in the relationships you already have. A large customer on a long, well-documented agreement, with several relationships across both businesses, is a very different proposition from one held on a handshake by one person.

• Contract terms and renewal visibility. Written agreements, clear renewal dates and notice periods give a buyer something to rely on.
• More than one relationship per account. Several people in your business should know several people in theirs, not only founder to buyer.
• Evidence of performance. Service reviews, satisfaction measures and a record of renewals show why the customer stays.
• Credit control. Agree payment terms and hold customers to them. GOV.UK explains late commercial payments, including when a payment counts as late and your right to claim interest and recovery costs.

Your solicitor should review any significant customer contract before a sale, particularly for terms that apply if the business changes hands.

Questions to ask about each large account

• How long have they been a customer, and how has their spending changed?
• What agreement do we hold them on, and when does it end or renew?
• Who holds the relationship on each side, and what happens if that person leaves?
• How profitable is the account once the full cost of serving it is included?
• How easily could they replace us, and how easily could we replace them?
• Do they pay on time?

07

Explaining concentration honestly in due diligence

If your business is concentrated, a buyer will find out. It is far better that they hear it from you, with the numbers, the history and a plan, than discover it in the data room.

• Show the trend over several years, by revenue and by profit.
• Explain the relationship: how long it has lasted, how deep it goes and the terms it rests on.
• Show what you are doing about it: new customers won, new segments entered, the plan for the next two years.
• Be realistic about the risk. Credibility is worth more than spin.

Expect to be asked for a customer list with revenue by year, copies of the main customer agreements, evidence of renewals and service performance, and your credit control history. Having them ready makes the conversation shorter and calmer. Your accountant can help prepare the analysis in the form a buyer will expect; ICAEW’s find a chartered accountant directory lists member firms.

A known risk that is clearly explained and actively managed is easier for a buyer to price than one they find for themselves. Our guide How to prepare a business for sale covers the wider preparation.

08

How Stratworth helps

Customer Value is one of the eight pillars of SCALE2SELL®, our exit readiness framework: understanding what your customers need, how well you deliver it and how well you keep them. Its toolkit starts with a Customer Profile Matrix that records the share of revenue each of your main customer segments brings. We map where your revenue and profit come from, how secure each major relationship is, and how to broaden the base without neglecting the clients who helped you grow. It works alongside Business Strategy and Financial Clarity & Drivers, because concentration is as much about the quality of revenue as its spread.

If broadening the business is the priority, see our approach to growth strategy, or read What makes a business worth more? When you are ready, score your business with the free Readiness Assessment or book a complimentary Founder Conversation with Nik.